LATEST: 10 / 6 / 2008

There is a light at the end of the October Tunnel!

Aloha,

Although Hurricane Kyle surely gave us a bounty of surf, now were still trying to dig out from the tiny doldrums which have settled in since. Look for a wave of low pressure to develop and push off the Carolinas by Thursday. This low will likely give us some onshore winds as we approach Friday and thus a nice little fetch building in. Although were not gonna get a longer period swell here, we should still have a chest to head high cleaning up wave by Saturday. Once again, timing is still somewhat iffy, but at this point, Saturday looks to be the day! Look for Saturdays winds to stay predominately SW so not quite perfect, but still certainly really good!

All for now..just a short and sweet update.

Duke

duke Says: Bring on Nor'easter season!

9 / 25 / 2008

BOOOOO-Ya game on!

Aloha,

If you've been outside in the last ten minutes you are aware that she's blowing pretty good outside. We have two storm systems that are responsible for the howling winds and thus soon to be rideable surf(soon is a relative term here).

Okay, lets start with the low off da Carolinas. This low, is very large in diameter(the outter bands are throwing clouds across NJ today,(Thursday)but it does appear to be more non-tropical than tropical. In essence it really doesn't matter because the non-trop. low(more Nor'easter ish) has the potential to be more of a player. The big question now is does the NC low make landfall, flatten out and become absorbed by the tropical low North of Puerto Rico?

As mentioned the much hyped low North of PR is still getting it's act together. But, should this Northward moving low cruise close enough to us(it def looks like it does) this will also aid in swell production. Look for this PR low to cruise past our shores by Saturday and then North of NJ/NY. Okay, so what's this all mean?

Don't expect much of a clean-up until all of these wind/wave makers move North of NJ. So, not really that rideable until Sunday. Check it early because it has the potential to be really good! Look for local winds to be WNW so many spots will be firing....for now we wait and bring in those outdoor lawn pagodas!

Stoked for some juice!

Duke

duke Says: Bring on Nor'easter season!

9 / 20 / 2008

Duke re-emerges after being kidnapped by oil wrestling midgets who mistook him for Joe Francis!

Aloha,

Hi remember me? I'm the guy that's been a bit mia lately-but that doesn't mean I've taken my eyes off da prize! Well lets get right too it on this Saturday. We do have surf on da way thanks in part to a building pressure gradient that will light up a nice NE Swell. Yup, that time of year again. Some will call it a dry Nor'Easter some will not. Semantics aside, were gonna get some surf! For my Monmouth County Peeps, you know what well known spots tend to break on the NE angle-stoked to actually surf to my frontside for a change!

A very strong area of High Pressure in Southern Canada coupled with a Low South of NJ will tag team to provide a pretty tight pressure gradient and thus some a building NE swell throughout the weekend. At this point it looks bigger later today but rideability will certainly improve by tomorrow as the winds should be offshore tomorrow(Sunday 9/21) morning!

Although the tropics are quiet, persistant NE/E winds will keep swell in our window and our shores all week long! The only question going forward this week is at which point or day will the winds cooperate? Make sure you check the Reports Page for eyes on observations.

Let's surf!

Duke

duke Says: Bring on Nor'easter season!

5 / 21 / 2008

Weak outlook for the next few days...

Aloha,

After some really fun sessions in April, it appears that May is less than stellar. Sure we've had our quick hitting windswells, but the bigger, macking swells have not been nearly as forthcoming. So, do you want the good news or the bad news first? Let's start with the good.

As we head into Memorial Day Weekend, our weather looks fantastic. By Monday, high temps should be hitting 80 degrees! However, as many of you know by now, great weather often means poor surf-this go around included. A ridge of High Pressure builds over the EC and locks us into very nice weather, but weak, tiny surf. Look for wave heights in knee to maybe thigh high range for the holiday weekend, with perhaps top spots yielding a loggable/fishable bump on an incoming tide.

Yardwork anyone?

Duke

duke Says: Bring on Nor'easter season!

5 / 8 / 2008

Welcome to May!

After a slow couple of days in the beginning of the month, it now seems like the pattern has gotten much more progressive! The Northern Jet and subsequently a three part storm system has already begun to affect us. The first part of this system brought us the spotty showers with the cold front. The frontal passage was important, because it kinda opened the back door for this more progressive pattern. Okay...so now that the door's open, what next??

The second(Friday's swell maker) part will be a fairly innocous low building in a fun South swell. Look for wave heights in the chest to perhaps head high range. Tomorrow(Friday) is a pretty nasty day with gusty Easterly Winds and a very raw feel. I'd keep those 4mils handy and the gloves too for a friday seshie....speaking of which, I don't think the rideability is gonna be all that good.

Now, part three to a storm complex is the jewel in our wavemaking crown. This third low is a love-child born in the upper midwest as a result a digging, negatively tilted phased jet! Wow, if u thinks that's a lot to read and comprehend, just imagine how hard it was to articulate!!!

This love-child low has great upper-air support and appears to actually become "cut-off" from the phased jets which gave it life(kinda rude to bite the hand that feeds ya?). I love cut-off lows because they tend to sit and spin and produce oodles and oodles of surf for us. Hopefully, this will be the case once again as Monday's swell will surely linger into Tuesday. Oh ya, winds look SW for Monday, so some really fine, hollow offshore shacks will be found in NJ!

I'm waiting on new model "guidance" this evening, but will blog back as the weekend really starts to unfold.

All for now, the surf gods have been awakened!!

Let's ride,

Duke

duke Says: Bring on Nor'easter season!

4 / 27 / 2008

April continues to produced for us...

Aloha,

As I've said many times before, it's always the "Transition" months that produce some of the best swells for us. In fact, April has been one of those months! I'm happy to say that it looks like we'll have one nice swell heading our way going into tomorrow(Monday).

A tight pressure gradient sets up as the result of a digging cold front and an offshore high. Although the upper-air environment is pretty good(trough looks more positively tilted than negatively) I think we have enough support to get the fetch machine going pretty well. The combination of these pressure systems will crank up some pretty good South winds and thus, a swell is born! Although this is not gonna be an epic swell, it will be chest to perhaps head high in many locations by later Monday. Ah, yes, speaking of Monday....pretty rainy and dreary throughout most of the day as the frontal system approaches NJ. I'm not gonna rule out some pretty strong storms(especially S. Jersey) where a Severe TStorm Watch will likely come up. So, keep and eye and ear to the sky if your gonna get on it later Monday Aft.

Looks like go time will be more like Tuesday DP session, but I think if the front is as progressive as I'm hoping, I'm gonna try for an evening glass off session Monday. High tide is around 2:00pm, so a lower tide should help a swell of this caliber out. Oh ya, I'm hoping for at least a SW wind by later tomorrow aft, so hopefully it will be an evening glass off session...

All for now, go get some!

Stoked,

Duke

duke Says: Bring on Nor'easter season!

4 / 15 / 2008

ENE Swell to start filling in....

Aloha,

After a couple of really fun sessions late last week and the 'Bra Boys' NYC premiere Saturday Evening, it seems like the dust has finally settled a bit. So, let's get down to the nitty gritty.

As mentioned above, we have a pretty decent synoptic(think highs and lows) set-up over the Atlantic for the next few days. A developing offshore low is sandwiched between a Novia Scotia High and an another area of high pressure over the Gulf Coast will combine to create some Atlantic luv for us! This wave making trio will join forces to pump in some pretty good NE and then East winds from Tuesday onward. It's really not until we get to the weekend, that we have a grooming cold front to move through. At this point our best bet will likely be later Thursday afternoon or Friday. Thursday will be bigger with a head High E/NE swell, but Friday am with lighter winds has the potential to be cleaner.

Like last week, we do not have very cooperative winds, so seek some shelter and seek those spots that will work with a E/NE swell. All for now. Daily updates in your Quickcast.

Let's ride,

Duke

duke Says: Bring on Nor'easter season!

3 / 8 / 2008

Game on for Sunday...

Aloha,

Today's round of rough and wet weather will likely leave us with some fun surf for tomorrow(Sunday) morning. Once again, the big fly in da ointment are the winds. In fact, the system is so large, so dynamic, that isolated tornadoes are possible in the DelMarva and perhaps into Southern New Jersey. Very strong upper level winds running perpendicular to the surface winds, could act as a catalyst for isolated tornadoes. If not, I do expect some straightline wind damage as well. so, how does this affect our surf?

I think the point I'm getting to is that this system is so large and potent that our winds will likely howl offshore tonight and clean and beat the surf down. I still think your Sunday Am session is a good one, but topping out at about chest high or so.

If you like this rainy storm surf set up, we have almost a repeat performance coming our way as we roll into next weekend(March 14th). Yet another digging and phasing Northern Jet makes tracks for the Southern Jet-where the two phase nicely. Phasing jets and good upper-air support are really the genesis of many of our better wave making storm systems.

All for now..daily updates in your Quickcast.

Get ready to ride!

Duke

duke Says: Bring on Nor'easter season!

3 / 1 / 2008

Boo-ya! March starts off Quite Well...

First off, my apologies again for less than stellar consistency with my Surfcast's during the last month. Lots of travel, work and kiddie patrol have all taken their toll,I am happy to say big daddy Duke is back with a passion!

Okay, sob story aside, let's get down to business. We have a couple of fine swell makers on the way for the first week of March. The first of which really starts on Wednesday as we are the recipients of strong Southerly Winds and a nice area of low pressure forming on the East Coast. This first swell has good upper-air support, and a nicely digging trough which seems like it gets negativey tilted-all good signs for a head high plus South Swell.

Swell number two comes later in the work week(Mar 6-7) as an even more impressive digging trough(the Northern Jet digs and phases with the Southern Jet dam near the Gulf of Mex!!!) really starts to get it's groove on. Although this upper-air band of fast moving winds seems almost straight up and down(as opposed to having any tilt or cant to it), we have very strong speed and directional sheer with this and thus lots of energy to work with. More energy, more wind, more fetch=more surf!!! This swell will be bigger, with set waves pushing head high and a half to some outside sets approaching dbl o on LI.

The best news is that from Tuesday/Wednesday through Friday and into Saturday it appears that we have consistant surf, with some periods of excellent rideability. Stay tuned to your Quickcast for daily updates!

All for now, lets get ready to ride some late winter juice!!!

Duke

duke Says: Bring on Nor'easter season!

1 / 31 / 2008

February comes in with a bang!

Aloha,

Gonna be kinda short and sweet this morning as I'm running out the door to grab a flight. It looks like our best bet will come on Friday/Saturday for rideable surf. Strong low pressure to eject outta da Tennesee Valley over the next 24 hours and in doing so, NJ will get socked with soaking rains and gusty winds. This South Swell maker should be dynmaic enough to produce a head high to overhead sized swell. Timing is an issue right now, as I'm hoping that we can salvage part of Friday afternoon and get some decent rideability.

South Swell spots should all do well, but will especialy clean up after the low cruises through and our winds turn offshore. Keep an eye on the winds(our new link on the Tools Page-Wind Guru is fantastic)as we approach Friday and Saturday.

All for now, don't miss this swell as it should be one of the better ones.

Daily updates in your Quickcast.

Let's ride!

Duke

duke Says: Bring on Nor'easter season!

1 / 22 / 2008

Duke comes out of coma and does another Surfcast!!!

Aloha,

So much for New Year's resolutions! My apologies to the loyal site users who have missed more frequent Surfcasts! Okay, lets get down to business.

looks like a rather weak outlook for the remainder of the week. The bright spot in the wave forecast is next Monday, January 28th. Yet another system is poised to affect us then when it slides along a phasing Southern Jet and up towards PA. Although this storm stays inland, the combo fetch between this inland low and a High off of Central Florida, should be enough for a fun bump. Looks like it's gonna take until the afternoon to clean-up, but we should end up with a chest high swell.

Swell #2 looks like it's on the way for early February(just as our Southern Jet really starts to get moving). I've said this numerous times before, but late February/March is a transition time for us and as a result, we often see the Southern Jet take some wild gyrations-we like gyrations!

All for now, but generally pretty lame until the 28th.

Daily updates in your Quickcast!

Duke

duke Says: Bring on Nor'easter season!

1 / 8 / 2008

January setting up to be very interesting...

Aloha,

After a lackluster first week of January, it now seems that week two will be off to a very good start. Interestingly, it really isn't my girlfriend(southern jet!) that steps up her game: this time it's the Northern Jet that gyrates like a Shakira video!

The first swell comes Wednesday, Jan. 9th. This swell is the byproduct of an approaching cold front, which breaks the back of record breaking highs. Because of all the warm air in place, the cold front will encounter a pretty dynamic environment which to generate swell within. For instance, this system on route to NJ, actually yielded a couple of twisters in Wisconsin-in January-no less! suffice it to say, the clash of the airmasses is responsible, the same upper air battleground that is gonna fuel our wave making efforts. Look for a nice chest to perhaps head high swell for later Wednesday.

Swell #2 comes on Friday with a much better chance of leftovers into Saturday Morning. This system is even more dynamic and features an inch to two inches of rain. However, we will be the recipient of a solid head high swell that will get beat down a bit Friday Night into Saturday. Saturday early should still feature a waist to perhaps chest high swell.

Our wave prospects are looking equally exciting going forward into next week as well-perhaps more surf for Monday! All for now, updates in your Quickcast!

Glad I did ding repair on my winter board!

Duke

duke Says: Bring on Nor'easter season!

1 / 3 / 2008

Near flat surf for the next few days...

Aloha,

Happy New Year! The last week of 2007 turned out to be one of the better and more consistant weeks of the year(I know that's not saying much). Unfortuneatly, 2008 is not continuing the wave bounty which we started in late 2007. An arctic cold front crossed the area yesterday and has left NJ in the deep freeze! This pattern though goes from bone chilling to wave starved! Although the cold shot is short lived, it quickly gets replaced by a Bermuda High setting up off da East Coast(not exactly conducive for surf). This wave killer will quickly warm us back into the 50s by next week, but it also kills any chance of a decent swell.

There is a light at the end of the wave starved tunnel: by the time the 13th/14th rolls around I'm seeing a a nice low develop in Western Georgia. This Southern Stream low will likely produce surf for us as it crusies up the EC. Right now, the track is a tad West, keeping us in the Warm Sector. By this I mean, It looks like a rain event and not a snow maker. Thicknesses are not conducive for snow either...so should be no prob getting to the beach!

All for now, updates as better data rolls in!

Duke

duke Says: Bring on Nor'easter season!

12 / 29 / 2007

A couple more swells before the well runs dry....

Aloha,

My apologies for the delay in Surfcast's! I know how much many of you enjoy reading my ramblings(I enjoy writing 'em too). So, game on in the Surfcast arena! The first swell comes today(Saturday) as the result of a fairly tight presure gradient and a coastal low(fairly weak one) that cruised by through the overnight. As I write, swell size seems to be in the waist to perhaps chest high range, with some clean up still needed. With a late morning high tide and a residual pulse still possible, looks like the afternoon seshie might be the better call.

Okay, swell maker number 2 comes New Years Eve Day(Monday). This is yet another Coastal-which might even bring a little snow with it this time around. This will likely be our last swell maker for at least a week, as the pattern is starting to show serious signs of winter moving in. Granted, that is not always a bad thing, but when the Southern Jet is shelved and cold, Siberian air has a free pass into the lower 48, well that's not good for swell generation!

Moral of the story: get your fill through the holiday weekend, as highs late next week will be in the 20s! Welcome to January!

All for now, updates forthcoming

We ride!!!!

Duke

duke Says: Bring on Nor'easter season!