LATEST: 7 / 9 / 2010
Cheee Hooo waves in da water!
Aloha,
Well that little offshore low(off da Carolinas) has produced a fun albeit a tad disorganized swell this Friday, July 9th! Go get some before she's gone!
It does appear that this swell will be a tad hit and run in nature as an approaching cold front will certainly knock her outta da way by tomorrow afternoon.
On the longer range radar, it appears that we have another good shot at surf by the middle of next week(July 14-15th) as a Newfoundland High and Upper Midwest Low team up to crank up the windbelt, tighten the pressure gradient and provide a fun South Swell.
All for now, the tropics still fairly quiet. I'll keep ya dialed in.
Stoked to surf,
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
7 / 4 / 2010
Welcome to July and Happy Birthday America!
Aloha,
I must admit, I haven't been too stoked to write at the prospect of next to nothing surf. Then a funny thing happened, I was pushing my daughter's into tiny gutless, onshorey surf yesterday and just seeing how stoked they were, we'll it got me jazzed too! So here's the deal and it's not gonna be ahuge revelation here: look for this death grip of a non- wave pattern to continue for the next few days. High Pressure and a relatively flat(zonal) upper air pattern will not do much to initiate any storm development.
Okay, that's the obvious. Now the wildcard is Hurricane Season. One of the reasons I've been a bit tardy on my Surfcast Updates is because I was recently down in Miami doing some training with da boys from da Hurricane Center. When the Director of the Hurricane Center calls the tropical activity for this season "Godzilla" like, um I think were in for a good year. Moreover, Hurricane Alex was the first June Hurricane to form since the....1995 Season....need I say more? Who remembers that season? I know My East End homeboy Chris Harmon does....landed a cover shot on Surfer Mag pitted off his ass!
Louis, Marilyn, Opal, Noel the list from that year goes on and on. Let's just hope that this year is just as good!
Sometimes all it takes is the stoked looked on a couple six year olds faces to renew the stoke!
We will ride, cause it's hurricane season!
Keep da Stoke,
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
5 / 24 / 2010
Boo-ya...game on....
Aloha,
I know, I know, been a while since we had this dance. Frankly, the surf has been uninspiring-until now that is! Well, da Duke is back at da keyboard and ready to spread da good word: no you didn't hit da lottery, but we do have multiple chances as surf over the next few days.
The first shot comes Wednesday(26th) as we continue with our onshore slopfest. Persistant onshore winds coupled with 'invest 90' spinning offshore, will help to build a chest to perhaps head high swell. Winds again will be an issue, with only very small windows of cleaning and grooming-make sure you check the Reports Page for the latest conditions.
The more interesting and perhaps better swell will come from a developing low which forms at the base of a trough just East of NJ on Saturday. This low has the potential to produce a NE swell just in time for the holiday weekend! All you Jersey Goofyfooters unite, this might be a very fun one! Look for another chest to head high swell heaving up da goods-especially for Sunday! At this point, Sunday looks to be the best bet with an accomodating NW wind.
Finally! we've broken the crappy pattern of the last month or so and it's game on....
Stoked for consistant surf.
Boo ya,
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
4 / 9 / 2010
Aloha,
Although now we're enjoying some small South swell, it looks like the upcoming week(April 10-17) will likely be pretty small. So far, April has not picked up were March has left off. We really saw some great upper air swings in the pattern last month which really helped us in the wave department.
However, next week the pattern looks pretty zonal(West to East) and as a result, we don't have those wave producing bends and kinks in the upper air pattern that often lead to killer swells.
So, we will likely see a short period wind swell at best, perhaps enough to just get wet. April is usually a good month, I'm sure that latter half will get better.
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
3 / 11 / 2010
Big South Headed Our Way, For This Weekend-3/13!
Aloha,
A strong and complex storm system is ejecting out of the Central Portion of the US and working it's way to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. This big rain maker will bring us at least a couple of inches of rain as well as some gusty winds. This dbl barrell low will help crank up the wind machine and drive in a nice South Swell.
Look for the build machine to get cranking on Friday(Tomorrow) as the first 'Wave' of rain and storminess moves into our direction. I think one of the reasons that were gonna see a big swell from this event is because of how prolonged it is. Currently, we could see this swell top out at near dbl over head on LI and a couple feet over here in NJ. The onshore flow will be with us for at least two days-with winds gusting to near 40mph Friday Night and into Saturday.
So, this storm is not hit and run in nature, however that also works against us too. I think were really not gonna see much in the way of rideability until perhaps Monday.
It looks like were gonna have to wait out the storm and then perhaps wait for a decent clean-up(Sunday) before getting wet. On the flip side, we should have surf through at least Tuesday-which will be smaller but perhaps the best day for Da Jersey Shore!
Get ready to paddle!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
3 / 5 / 2010
Chee Hoooo it's March and that means longer days, more swell and some warmer temps!
Aloha,
Is it me or did this Winter really suck? Short days coupled with 4 major snowstorms really made it feel like an arctic tundra outside. Well, the good news is that pattern has broken(although El-Nino is very much alive), and we should have some more opportunities at surf over the next couple of days. Okay, in da near term your best bet is to jump on this lingering swell today, Friday, March 5th with perhaps some loggable/fishable leftovers for Saturday. It looks like the wave gods turn off da switch for Sunday through most of next week as the pattern is pretty flat and the flow fairly zonal. This bodes well for great weather, not so much for great surf. So, get some kind grinds in now, then clean up around da house and gear up for the next best bet which comes the following weekend.
Right now longer range guidance hints at a developing storm which tracks across da gulf early in the week and then moves up da Appalachains by later in the week. Although this low stays predominately onshore, it will still crank up a very good South Swell. Go time for this swell will be next weekend.Stay tuned for more updates...I'm outta here time for my Friday seshie!!!
Stoooked,
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
2 / 23 / 2010
February continues to produce with yet another very strong coastal low...
As of today(Tuesday 2/23) were watching not one, not two, but three areas of low pressure developing. The first storm system is the weaker of the lot responsible for the snow and mixed precip affecting New Jersey today. We are seeing the surf build today, however peak rideability will be tomorrow, were head high sized surf will be in the cards for us. Also tomorrow, the much more interesting part of this story is the offshore coastal low which will develop. This huge low will produce upwards of a foot of snow in spots around NYC and will also captialize on the background swell energy in place. Although the majority of this swell will be sent further North(LI, RI) we could still see swell heights climb to well overhead by Thursday and Friday. Persistant NE winds will really crank up the fetch machine as this monster sits and spins and moves little over the next few days.
A very active and interesting pattern is unfolding. It seems the Southern Jet is back and open for business! Look for the surf to pump throughout the first half of March as well as we see a return to "transition" season.....
All for now...keep checking back for updates as this is just the beginning of the proverbial ice berg.
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
1 / 15 / 2010
Another Coastal set to light up da Jersey Shore...
Aloha,
After a flat and frigid first half of January, it seems this brief January thaw will do more than warm us up. With the weather pattern unlocking, that means that our upper air patterns have unlocked as well. We've broken out of the wave killing doldrums of the polar jet and now at least have a shot at some surf.
Our next best bet comes on Monday. Although a few of the models have been way too pesimistic, i think we could easily see a head high plus swell for Dr. Martin Luther King Monday. In fact, this big coastal is likely to dump a solid inch or more worth of rain. So, for you lucky ones who are off from work and school, this will be the ticket. Again, I'm not buying inot the swell models overly pessimistic model "output" as I think we'll do very well wave wise with this storm.
All for now, let's ride on Monday!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
1 / 6 / 2010
Happy New Year! May it be filled with plenty of surf!
Aloha,
2009 finished with some great surf...if only we can keep that action alive. The period from late October to the end of 2009 was perhaps the best late fall/early winter in NJ that I can remember. Nor'easters, Big Souths..you name it we had it all.
Okay, the trip down memory lane is now over and we have to get back to reality. Unfortuneately, we are in the midst of a wicked cold arctic airmass with previaling NW winds. This pattern is so dominated by the Polar Jetstream which is just not conducive to storm development. Once again, this January(at least the first half) looks flat and cold. In fact, we'll barely have a ripple to ride over the next week.
Once we ease out of January we should see the Arctic Jet retreat back into Canada and thus allow the Northern Jet initiate some storm growth.
All for now, cheers to some rockin' surf in 2010!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
12 / 18 / 2009
Hannukah is here, Christmas is around da corner and here comes perhaps the best gift of all......
Aloha,
All eyes are focused on a strong storm system that's gonna light up Jersey and LI Shores over the weekend(12/19-12/20). This Nor'easter(which is also a big snow maker)will really strengthen and deepen tomorrow(Saturday) and produce well overhead surf. Although many models have sort of downplayed this swell, I disagree.
Look for well overhead later Saturday which will still leave a head high plus swell for Sunday. Sunday am will be the biggest but probably not the cleanest. Look for the clean-up to continue throughout Sunday,(aided by NW winds) with slightly smaller but fun surf still on tap for early Monday as well. With the track of this Nor'easter, it appears that LI will certainly be bigger and stormier to boot-but we get shacked anyway and almost everywhere!
Happy Holidays!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
11 / 12 / 2009
New Jersey and LI about to Light up with Nor'easter Swell...
Aloha,
The remnants of Ida continue to spin through the Carolinas and towards NJ. As of Thursday, a Coastal Flood Warning and a High Surf Advisory is in effect. Ida has a very good chance of becoming a Nor'easter and thus producing some mackin November surf for us. Okay, let's get down to the nitty gritty. Latest swell and weather models do indicate that we really won't see much in the way of rideability until Saturday. Even at that point, you'll have to find a shoreline which faces South for those NNE winds. For a good part of Central Jersey, you'll have to either head North or South. Look for dbl o sized surf on Saturday, with head high to 3 feet overhead size surf on Sunday(especially early).
At this point, I'd say our best bets are Sunday and even a smaller but very groomed swell for Monday. Both Sunday and Monday have the potential to be really good with perhaps a leftover for Tuesday too! Look for NW winds for Sunday and Monday to provide excellent rideability a a few gaping pits! Game on..Boo ya...
We ride,
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
10 / 28 / 2009
October has been really good to us!
Aloha,
It seems like for the last 7 or 8 weekends we've had surf and in some spots, some really really good surf! Well, October will provide the goods again this week. The issue will be the winds and the resultant clean up-or lack thereof.
There is still plenty of swell in the water this morning, however a couple more days of non-favorable winds will be a substantial clean-up very ahrd to come by. I think for the next couple of days, look for periods or windows of less wind and protected breaks which will yield better periods of rideability.
At this point, Saturday Am may be one of our better bets, with chest high surf and semi-clean conditions. Unfortuneately, this is not gonna be a well advertised and no brainer, easy find swell. Search and seek and you shall be rewarded with better surf. Add to the mix many of our sand bars screwed up, the right spot for this swell is gonna be even harder to nail down....
Swell in da water, but where to ride it?
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
8 / 26 / 2009
Danny now a tropical storm and setting his sights on the Northeast!
Aloha,
Wow! what a weekend! Pumping Bill Surf, SEA White Party and of course the paddle. I just want to thank everyone involved and all the supporters who helped make this event truly epic.
Well, if you liked last weekends surf were in for round two. Unlike with Bill, Danny will be weaker and closer. However, given his slower speed, Danny has just as good a shot at producing the same sized surf, but cleaner. You see, much of the problem with Bill was the speed and direction of his fetch-it never really synched up. Now given a weaker(still likely to cruise past NJ as a hurricane though)but more 'aligned' fetch pattern-Danny will likely produce better surf.
Okay a few nitty gritty details: Danny has top winds now of about 45 mph. He's about 650 SE of Cape Hatteras, NC. He is moving NW at about 12mph and this general motion is expected for the next day or so.
Look for the swell to start to show later Thursday or Friday and continue to build throughout Saturday with SUNDAY being da day(again). However, with pretty gusty NE winds on Saturday and the potential for rain, Saturday is probably a wash out. Best bets are as the swell builds on Friday and of course again on Sunday.
All for now, but needless to say, the late Summer stoke continues!
Get ready to ride!
Supa Stoked!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
6 / 21 / 2009
The coldest and wettest winter I ever spent, was a June in New Jersey....
Aloha,
Welcome to Summer!? I have to admit, this is one of the wackiest weather patterns I've seen in years. Not only is New Jersey teatering on 3x's the normal rainfall for the month, but were seeing a more fall/winter like pattern over N. america? Where the hell is da Southern Jet????? Moreover, we've almost seen more days with highs in the 60's than the 70s and certainly the 80s. In fact, so far this month, we have not seen one 90 degree day!!
Okay, so where am I going with this? My point is the pattern is so displaced and outta whack, that I'm actually watching the low that moved of da Jersey shore this Father's Day morning(happy Father's Day Dads), for potential Nor'easter development??? C'mon it's June!!!
Although this low will probably not develop that mighty cold-core cyclone stylee that Nor'easter's have, but I find it very, very interesting that this low is actually gonna retrograde(move back) toward the NJ Coast and keep some sort of swell in da picture for Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday. At this point, not only are the weather models terrible, swell models aint much better...we haven't seen many June patterns like this, so not only are forecasters scratching their heads, but so are the models. Best bet? check the Reports Section frequently, as our June Gloom will continue for a couple more days.
Hey, at least there's surf!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
5 / 12 / 2009
April provided the goods, but will May catch up?
Aloha,
After a very good April(wave wise of course), it looks like May may turn on a little bit this week/weekend. We actually have two seperate systems heading our way. The first storm is kinda a quick hitter and will likely only produce a chest high bump for us as we roll into Thursday. Strong South Winds will help drive in a nice South swell for later Thursday Afternoon. This windswell is the by-product of a strong low moving through the Upper-Midwest and an Offshore High parked South of Newfoundland. The combination of these two systems really cranks up da atmospheric rubber band and spins some fun windswell in our direction. Get it while you can, this puppy aint gonna be around long.
Swell number two comes later in the weekend and into early next week. The system is way more complex and multi-faceted. It begins with cold front that stalls South of NJ(thus becoming stationary) over the weekend and acts as a focusing mechanism for many disturbances to ride along. By Monday, peristant onshore winds should build in a sloppy head high swell. At this point it's still a little tough to pinpoint the best periods of rideability, but it's looking like at Monday at the earliest on this next one and perhaps even later-stay tuned for more details!
My quad needs some lovin'! Let's get ready to ride!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
4 / 22 / 2009
Get it while it last's...cause wave killer # 1 sets back up...
Aloha,
As I write April is continuing it's wave producing ways with some really fun this coming in this morning. This South swell will continue to pump all day on this Earth day! Hopefully you'll get some while it lasts.
The outlook is not looking so promising with a rideg of High pressure building in. This ridge is fueled by the quasi-Bermuda High which will really put the Kabosh on any wave chances over the weekend. Summertime weather coupled with Summertime temepratures means that we pretty much see near flat conditions from Friday-Tuesday.
All for now..just a quick update. Go get some today!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
4 / 14 / 2009
Tax day may loom, but so does a great swell!
Aloha,
Well it looks like were in business as a coastal low is expected to move off the Delmarva by Wednesday the 15th(tomorrow). This low is actually part of a much larger system which will keep rain and dreary conditions in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. These multiple lows will help to develop strong cyclogenesis and thus a persistent, onshore ENE fetch. Because of the length of the build and the persitent fetch, we'll certainly see some beach errosion and a pretty strong sweep. Other than South Jersey, our winds with this system are not that accomodating at least until midday in Thursday. Even then, I think with the sweep, it's gonna be really hard to find good rideability. Although it will be right around head high, it looks like Friday Morning in Monmouth and Ocean Counties(As well as LI) will be your best bet. Look for head high sized surf with much cleaner WNW winds...
Now, for our friends and road warriors willing to make the trip to S. Jersey(right around AC) you will likely see bigger surf and a quicker clean-up thanks to more of a South facing shoreline. Look for head high to head high and a half sized surf for Thursday with a much more groomed NE swell. Hum, I can think of a few spots which may reel ......
All for now...nice swell on the way. Oh and you goofyfooters, this one's for you!
Stoked,
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
3 / 26 / 2009
March continues to produce....
Aloha,
Now that winter is officially over we have begun that "pseudo" season which I love so much: the transition season.
While we "transition" from Winter and into Spring the upper air patterns and more importantly, the jetstreams are starting to gyrate more than a Britanny Spears Video! We basically need these fast moving rivers of air to swing wildly, because when they do we reap the benefits!
Okay, lets get down to the nitty gritty. We have a couple of shots at surf over the next few days. The swell event is basically intertwined, but we have a shot for surf both Saturday and Sunday. Saturday's swell is more Northeasterly which should light up a couple well know Monmouth County spots. Granted, neither swell will be big but some chest high bombies will likely be had.
On Sunday that stalled cold front moves out to sea and we see more of a SSW and thus crossing up the swell a tad. Okay, so does one go Sat or Sun or both? At this point it all depends on how clean Saturday's swell is. At first glance, it looks like Sunday will be cleaner and thus smaller, but I'm not ready to write off Saturday yet either-especially being a goofyfooter in NJ! Make sure to check to Reports Page for the latest on both of these swells. All for now, weekend warriors rejoice!
Stoked,
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
3 / 9 / 2009
March starts off on a high note...
Aloha,
Now that February is in the books and we've already had a couple swells thus far in March, it appears that March will continue it's wave producing ways. As the Northern Jet dominated winter weather pattern is ending, our good friend, the Southern Jet is awakening.
This week our best bet will be on Wednesday. Look for building conditions beginning on Tuesday as onshore winds start to pump in a fun windbump. By Wednesday, our winds go SW which should help to groom things a bit. Perhaps we'll have a few leftovers for early Thursday, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
As mentioned previously, the overall upper air pattern is starting to change and I'm confident that our buddy, the Southern Jet will be Shore to Please!
All for now. Keep checking the reports page for "eyes on" , real-time reports.
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
1 / 20 / 2009
Our Nation has a new President, but when will we get another swell?
Aloha,
After a very long(at least seems that way) and mostly waveless January thus far, it seems like our weather pattern has been dominated by the dam Northern and Polar Jetstream. This polar flow has been so non-conducive to storm development, we've seen nothing except for a couple of quick hitting clipper systems(which don't kick up surf anyway). It now appears that were gonna have to wait until the end of the month to get some good cyclogenesis and thus some surf. Although it looks like two seperate storms(January 29th) and Feb 1 will be born from a trough in the Northern Jet, the jet still gets tilted enough to go negative and thus that's a good thing for us! These negatively tilted troughs help to spin stronger and better wave making storms for us and hopefully this will be the case by the end of the month!
Still a tad early to really pinpoint specifics, but the early indications of the 29th Storm looks very promising in terms of strength-track is certainly another variable.
Stay tuned for updates as guidance gets a little better.
Let's put January behind us as soon as possible!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
1 / 14 / 2009
Duke wakes up from his coma, gets off his ass, and busts another Surfcast!
Aloha,
Wheeeeew...now that 2008 is over I'm amped and excited for a wave rich 2009! Unfortuneately, the current pattern will not be so accomodating. This brutally cold pattern, which is Northern and Polar Jetstream dominated, is so not conducive to cyclogenesis and storm development. I'd say in the short term take a ski or snowboard trip and hope for the pattern to unlock. However, it is January, which is our coldest month of the year.
The arctic air and near waveless pattern will continue through the weekend before we get some movement in the pattern and some improvements. Hunker down, make a fire, go skiing or boarding and hopefully by the end of the month we'll start to see some changes and improvements in the upper-air pattern.
All for now, expect to see more frequent Surfcasts in 2009.
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
12 / 25 / 2008
Merry Christmas!
Aloha,
On this special Dukestorm Holiday Edition Surfcast, it appears that we'll have some fun surf for the Christmas weekend. Following the fun swell of today(yes, I missed it too..but thanks to Jet1a for the pics!) we should be in business for a bigger and better swell on Sunday. Again, blowtorch Southwest winds really crank to pump in a fun bump for Sunday. At this point it doesn't appear that this swell will be huge, however a head high sized bump is certainly possible.
As we begin this new winter season it's nice to see that the Southern Jet has been overly active. This fast moving river of air has been responsible for some great twists and turns and thus storm development. We need those atmospheric gyrations to create storms and spin 'em in our direction. Let's hope the rockin' and rolling will continue into 2009!
To all of our loyal site users, it's been a pleasure serving you and we hope that www.dukestorm.com will continue to be your premiere surf forecasting and information website in the tri-state region for years to come.
Mahalo,
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
12 / 12 / 2008
A great start to the weekend...
Aloha,
I'm finally back on a computer that works this morning, but access has been difficult. Okay, now back to the swell which is on tap for today, Friday,Decemeber 12. The fairly strong low which has brought us near 3" of rain into this morning, has finally moved outta here and the surf is just continuing to pump! Expect clean, firing head high conditions for the remainder of the afternoon. Although our winds will be offshore, they never really gust to point to where our swell gets beat into oblivion. So, I think we should still see a chest high swell for tomorrow, (Saturday) Morning.
Swell #2 is on tap for Tuesday as another South Swell maker gets geared up. This second swell is the direct result of a pretty decent SW fetch and not a much stronger offshore low. Although this swell will be fun, it's not gonna be huge-look for a chest to perhaps head high swell. Winds work on this one too, but the wind direction is a tad more NNW, thus making the winds more suitable for South facing beaches.
All for now, updates will be forthcoming.
We ride today!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
11 / 24 / 2008
Thanksgiving nears and so does the surf...
Aloha,
Well it seems that once again we'll have waves for Thanksgiving. Let's just hope the only 'stuffing' is on your dinner table! It should actually be a pretty wave filled week with (2) two good swell makers on the way.
The first swell comes compliments of warm air advection and an area of low pressure moving up the spine of the Appalachains. The low should intensify pretty well and produce head high surf on the backside of fairly vigorous South Winds. Look for the clean-up to come tomorrow aft with fun head high surf and a general SW Wind.
Okay, swell maker #2 really starts to build in late Thanksgiving and into the weekend. This system is much more dynamic and has better upper air support. Although the wheels of motion start late this week on this swell, it's really not unitl Saturday until we start to see the rideability really take shape.
Just a couple of notes: although these two swells are the highlight, it appears that we have a couple 'sneaker' swells or pulses cropping up for Wednesday(leftovers early...but lingering into Thursday?). So, at this point it looks like the only unrideable day will be Friday.....
All for now, have a great Thanksgiving week!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
11 / 15 / 2008
Another soggy Saturday will hopefully yield some leftovers for tomorrow...
Aloha,
Well a couple of quick hit wind swell events have cruised through Jersey since my last 'Cast. However, the best bet for next week comes tomorrow with the leftovers of today's event. As of Saturday afternoon(11/15) we are under a Tornado Watch, with a very dynamic storm system afoot. Basically the gusty South winds out ahead of a strong cold front will act to really rile things up around here. So, we've got a good build going on now before the cold front moves through-and that is where the problem lies. Although the offshore bouy's are likely to register swell heights near 10ft, much(hopefully not all) of that swell will be beaten down overnight. You see, once the cold front moves though, it will pass through with a vengeance. Look for howling West winds behind the front with winds speeds at 30kts. So, the moral of the story is this: Under less dynamic conditions we would have had the makings of a fantastic dp. However, given the timing of the cold front passage, and the time of year(fronts are stronger outside the summer), the "Skunk" factor is very high. I'd say we would be lucky to have a waist to chest high bump left for tomoorrow morning. Once again, if the front gets hung up, stalls or the winds don't howl as much as we think they will, than we might be left with a bigger wave for tomorrow's dp-ers....all depends on what happens tonight....
Fingers crossed for some leftovers!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
11 / 5 / 2008
The election is over and waves won out!
Aloha,
A developing storm system this morning off da Virgina/North Carolina Coast will gradually creep Northward over the next day or so. This developing low will bring with it some rain and help to build in a nice N/NE swell for Thursday and Friday. Although these gusty NE winds will make ride ability difficult for Thursday. At this point, it appears that Friday Morning will be go time for us. Although at it's peak, swell size on Thursday will top out at about a couple feet over head, Friday's swell size will drop 3 feet or so, but should be our best bet with head high sized surf and more accommodating winds. Although the winds early will not be truly offshore(more NW), it looks like Friday Morning will be our best bet.
Stay tuned for more details as the swell moves northward.
Get ready to ride!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
9 / 20 / 2008
Duke re-emerges after being kidnapped by oil wrestling midgets who mistook him for Joe Francis!
Aloha,
Hi remember me? I'm the guy that's been a bit mia lately-but that doesn't mean I've taken my eyes off da prize! Well lets get right too it on this Saturday. We do have surf on da way thanks in part to a building pressure gradient that will light up a nice NE Swell. Yup, that time of year again. Some will call it a dry Nor'Easter some will not. Semantics aside, were gonna get some surf! For my Monmouth County Peeps, you know what well known spots tend to break on the NE angle-stoked to actually surf to my frontside for a change!
A very strong area of High Pressure in Southern Canada coupled with a Low South of NJ will tag team to provide a pretty tight pressure gradient and thus some a building NE swell throughout the weekend. At this point it looks bigger later today but rideability will certainly improve by tomorrow as the winds should be offshore tomorrow(Sunday 9/21) morning!
Although the tropics are quiet, persistant NE/E winds will keep swell in our window and our shores all week long! The only question going forward this week is at which point or day will the winds cooperate? Make sure you check the Reports Page for eyes on observations.
Let's surf!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
5 / 21 / 2008
Weak outlook for the next few days...
Aloha,
After some really fun sessions in April, it appears that May is less than stellar. Sure we've had our quick hitting windswells, but the bigger, macking swells have not been nearly as forthcoming. So, do you want the good news or the bad news first? Let's start with the good.
As we head into Memorial Day Weekend, our weather looks fantastic. By Monday, high temps should be hitting 80 degrees! However, as many of you know by now, great weather often means poor surf-this go around included. A ridge of High Pressure builds over the EC and locks us into very nice weather, but weak, tiny surf. Look for wave heights in knee to maybe thigh high range for the holiday weekend, with perhaps top spots yielding a loggable/fishable bump on an incoming tide.
Yardwork anyone?
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
5 / 8 / 2008
Welcome to May!
After a slow couple of days in the beginning of the month, it now seems like the pattern has gotten much more progressive! The Northern Jet and subsequently a three part storm system has already begun to affect us. The first part of this system brought us the spotty showers with the cold front. The frontal passage was important, because it kinda opened the back door for this more progressive pattern. Okay...so now that the door's open, what next??
The second(Friday's swell maker) part will be a fairly innocous low building in a fun South swell. Look for wave heights in the chest to perhaps head high range. Tomorrow(Friday) is a pretty nasty day with gusty Easterly Winds and a very raw feel. I'd keep those 4mils handy and the gloves too for a friday seshie....speaking of which, I don't think the rideability is gonna be all that good.
Now, part three to a storm complex is the jewel in our wavemaking crown. This third low is a love-child born in the upper midwest as a result a digging, negatively tilted phased jet! Wow, if u thinks that's a lot to read and comprehend, just imagine how hard it was to articulate!!!
This love-child low has great upper-air support and appears to actually become "cut-off" from the phased jets which gave it life(kinda rude to bite the hand that feeds ya?). I love cut-off lows because they tend to sit and spin and produce oodles and oodles of surf for us. Hopefully, this will be the case once again as Monday's swell will surely linger into Tuesday. Oh ya, winds look SW for Monday, so some really fine, hollow offshore shacks will be found in NJ!
I'm waiting on new model "guidance" this evening, but will blog back as the weekend really starts to unfold.
All for now, the surf gods have been awakened!!
Let's ride,
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
4 / 27 / 2008
April continues to produced for us...
Aloha,
As I've said many times before, it's always the "Transition" months that produce some of the best swells for us. In fact, April has been one of those months! I'm happy to say that it looks like we'll have one nice swell heading our way going into tomorrow(Monday).
A tight pressure gradient sets up as the result of a digging cold front and an offshore high. Although the upper-air environment is pretty good(trough looks more positively tilted than negatively) I think we have enough support to get the fetch machine going pretty well. The combination of these pressure systems will crank up some pretty good South winds and thus, a swell is born! Although this is not gonna be an epic swell, it will be chest to perhaps head high in many locations by later Monday. Ah, yes, speaking of Monday....pretty rainy and dreary throughout most of the day as the frontal system approaches NJ. I'm not gonna rule out some pretty strong storms(especially S. Jersey) where a Severe TStorm Watch will likely come up. So, keep and eye and ear to the sky if your gonna get on it later Monday Aft.
Looks like go time will be more like Tuesday DP session, but I think if the front is as progressive as I'm hoping, I'm gonna try for an evening glass off session Monday. High tide is around 2:00pm, so a lower tide should help a swell of this caliber out. Oh ya, I'm hoping for at least a SW wind by later tomorrow aft, so hopefully it will be an evening glass off session...
All for now, go get some!
Stoked,
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
4 / 15 / 2008
ENE Swell to start filling in....
Aloha,
After a couple of really fun sessions late last week and the 'Bra Boys' NYC premiere Saturday Evening, it seems like the dust has finally settled a bit. So, let's get down to the nitty gritty.
As mentioned above, we have a pretty decent synoptic(think highs and lows) set-up over the Atlantic for the next few days. A developing offshore low is sandwiched between a Novia Scotia High and an another area of high pressure over the Gulf Coast will combine to create some Atlantic luv for us! This wave making trio will join forces to pump in some pretty good NE and then East winds from Tuesday onward. It's really not until we get to the weekend, that we have a grooming cold front to move through. At this point our best bet will likely be later Thursday afternoon or Friday. Thursday will be bigger with a head High E/NE swell, but Friday am with lighter winds has the potential to be cleaner.
Like last week, we do not have very cooperative winds, so seek some shelter and seek those spots that will work with a E/NE swell. All for now. Daily updates in your Quickcast.
Let's ride,
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
3 / 8 / 2008
Game on for Sunday...
Aloha,
Today's round of rough and wet weather will likely leave us with some fun surf for tomorrow(Sunday) morning. Once again, the big fly in da ointment are the winds. In fact, the system is so large, so dynamic, that isolated tornadoes are possible in the DelMarva and perhaps into Southern New Jersey. Very strong upper level winds running perpendicular to the surface winds, could act as a catalyst for isolated tornadoes. If not, I do expect some straightline wind damage as well. so, how does this affect our surf?
I think the point I'm getting to is that this system is so large and potent that our winds will likely howl offshore tonight and clean and beat the surf down. I still think your Sunday Am session is a good one, but topping out at about chest high or so.
If you like this rainy storm surf set up, we have almost a repeat performance coming our way as we roll into next weekend(March 14th). Yet another digging and phasing Northern Jet makes tracks for the Southern Jet-where the two phase nicely. Phasing jets and good upper-air support are really the genesis of many of our better wave making storm systems.
All for now..daily updates in your Quickcast.
Get ready to ride!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
3 / 1 / 2008
Boo-ya! March starts off Quite Well...
First off, my apologies again for less than stellar consistency with my Surfcast's during the last month. Lots of travel, work and kiddie patrol have all taken their toll,I am happy to say big daddy Duke is back with a passion!
Okay, sob story aside, let's get down to business. We have a couple of fine swell makers on the way for the first week of March. The first of which really starts on Wednesday as we are the recipients of strong Southerly Winds and a nice area of low pressure forming on the East Coast. This first swell has good upper-air support, and a nicely digging trough which seems like it gets negativey tilted-all good signs for a head high plus South Swell.
Swell number two comes later in the work week(Mar 6-7) as an even more impressive digging trough(the Northern Jet digs and phases with the Southern Jet dam near the Gulf of Mex!!!) really starts to get it's groove on. Although this upper-air band of fast moving winds seems almost straight up and down(as opposed to having any tilt or cant to it), we have very strong speed and directional sheer with this and thus lots of energy to work with. More energy, more wind, more fetch=more surf!!! This swell will be bigger, with set waves pushing head high and a half to some outside sets approaching dbl o on LI.
The best news is that from Tuesday/Wednesday through Friday and into Saturday it appears that we have consistant surf, with some periods of excellent rideability. Stay tuned to your Quickcast for daily updates!
All for now, lets get ready to ride some late winter juice!!!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
1 / 31 / 2008
February comes in with a bang!
Aloha,
Gonna be kinda short and sweet this morning as I'm running out the door to grab a flight. It looks like our best bet will come on Friday/Saturday for rideable surf. Strong low pressure to eject outta da Tennesee Valley over the next 24 hours and in doing so, NJ will get socked with soaking rains and gusty winds. This South Swell maker should be dynmaic enough to produce a head high to overhead sized swell. Timing is an issue right now, as I'm hoping that we can salvage part of Friday afternoon and get some decent rideability.
South Swell spots should all do well, but will especialy clean up after the low cruises through and our winds turn offshore. Keep an eye on the winds(our new link on the Tools Page-Wind Guru is fantastic)as we approach Friday and Saturday.
All for now, don't miss this swell as it should be one of the better ones.
Daily updates in your Quickcast.
Let's ride!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
1 / 22 / 2008
Duke comes out of coma and does another Surfcast!!!
Aloha,
So much for New Year's resolutions! My apologies to the loyal site users who have missed more frequent Surfcasts! Okay, lets get down to business.
looks like a rather weak outlook for the remainder of the week. The bright spot in the wave forecast is next Monday, January 28th. Yet another system is poised to affect us then when it slides along a phasing Southern Jet and up towards PA. Although this storm stays inland, the combo fetch between this inland low and a High off of Central Florida, should be enough for a fun bump. Looks like it's gonna take until the afternoon to clean-up, but we should end up with a chest high swell.
Swell #2 looks like it's on the way for early February(just as our Southern Jet really starts to get moving). I've said this numerous times before, but late February/March is a transition time for us and as a result, we often see the Southern Jet take some wild gyrations-we like gyrations!
All for now, but generally pretty lame until the 28th.
Daily updates in your Quickcast!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
1 / 8 / 2008
January setting up to be very interesting...
Aloha,
After a lackluster first week of January, it now seems that week two will be off to a very good start. Interestingly, it really isn't my girlfriend(southern jet!) that steps up her game: this time it's the Northern Jet that gyrates like a Shakira video!
The first swell comes Wednesday, Jan. 9th. This swell is the byproduct of an approaching cold front, which breaks the back of record breaking highs. Because of all the warm air in place, the cold front will encounter a pretty dynamic environment which to generate swell within. For instance, this system on route to NJ, actually yielded a couple of twisters in Wisconsin-in January-no less! suffice it to say, the clash of the airmasses is responsible, the same upper air battleground that is gonna fuel our wave making efforts. Look for a nice chest to perhaps head high swell for later Wednesday.
Swell #2 comes on Friday with a much better chance of leftovers into Saturday Morning. This system is even more dynamic and features an inch to two inches of rain. However, we will be the recipient of a solid head high swell that will get beat down a bit Friday Night into Saturday. Saturday early should still feature a waist to perhaps chest high swell.
Our wave prospects are looking equally exciting going forward into next week as well-perhaps more surf for Monday! All for now, updates in your Quickcast!
Glad I did ding repair on my winter board!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
1 / 3 / 2008
Near flat surf for the next few days...
Aloha,
Happy New Year! The last week of 2007 turned out to be one of the better and more consistant weeks of the year(I know that's not saying much). Unfortuneatly, 2008 is not continuing the wave bounty which we started in late 2007. An arctic cold front crossed the area yesterday and has left NJ in the deep freeze! This pattern though goes from bone chilling to wave starved! Although the cold shot is short lived, it quickly gets replaced by a Bermuda High setting up off da East Coast(not exactly conducive for surf). This wave killer will quickly warm us back into the 50s by next week, but it also kills any chance of a decent swell.
There is a light at the end of the wave starved tunnel: by the time the 13th/14th rolls around I'm seeing a a nice low develop in Western Georgia. This Southern Stream low will likely produce surf for us as it crusies up the EC. Right now, the track is a tad West, keeping us in the Warm Sector. By this I mean, It looks like a rain event and not a snow maker. Thicknesses are not conducive for snow either...so should be no prob getting to the beach!
All for now, updates as better data rolls in!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
12 / 29 / 2007
A couple more swells before the well runs dry....
Aloha,
My apologies for the delay in Surfcast's! I know how much many of you enjoy reading my ramblings(I enjoy writing 'em too). So, game on in the Surfcast arena! The first swell comes today(Saturday) as the result of a fairly tight presure gradient and a coastal low(fairly weak one) that cruised by through the overnight. As I write, swell size seems to be in the waist to perhaps chest high range, with some clean up still needed. With a late morning high tide and a residual pulse still possible, looks like the afternoon seshie might be the better call.
Okay, swell maker number 2 comes New Years Eve Day(Monday). This is yet another Coastal-which might even bring a little snow with it this time around. This will likely be our last swell maker for at least a week, as the pattern is starting to show serious signs of winter moving in. Granted, that is not always a bad thing, but when the Southern Jet is shelved and cold, Siberian air has a free pass into the lower 48, well that's not good for swell generation!
Moral of the story: get your fill through the holiday weekend, as highs late next week will be in the 20s! Welcome to January!
All for now, updates forthcoming
We ride!!!!
Duke
duke Says: Get your paddle on!
